Following three years in the manufacturing, Augur has established its own mainnet and gone .
On July 8, Augur declared via Twitter the system’s migration into its mainnet would start on Monday in 11:01 a.m. PT, along with the organization’s Medium page estimated that the procedure would continue eight to 10 hours. ) Augur, three years in the building, has promised to forecast the future. However, for the time being, predictions regarding its future proved disappointingly indistinct: It could be live sometime tonight.
In its promotional material, Augur is generally called a”decentralized oracle and forecast marketplace stage,” though often it’s clarified more bluntly as a gambling platform. On it, everyone can make a query about a future result, while it’s”Will the Warriors win the 2019 NBA championship?” Or”Will pork bellies fall to $1 per pound?” Individuals may purchase”stocks” and are rewarded for correct forecasts. Conversely, those who choose wrong positions eliminate money.
Augur can exist in a legal grey area. But many countries will still opt to keep sports gambling prohibited. It is not clear, but how exactly Augur might be stopped even if countries wish to, due to its decentralized, open design layout.
However Augur can offer something beyond the chance to gamble. It might supply an genuine social great — higher precision of forecasts of future events. It’s founded upon the concept of this”wisdom of the crowd,” which postulates that any question can be accurately answered, normally, by requesting a high amount of individuals instead of one person (even a specialist ). Here is the concept that underpins both Wikipedia (in which it is possible to read a intelligent crowd-written explanation of this wisdom of the crowd) along with also the”Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” ask-the-audience alternative.
In case Augur’s promise is fully realized, forecasts about anything could be enhanced — politics, natural disasters. Even terrorist attacks (such as the forecast market that the Pentagon tried, into the horror of many).
While there’s research to support that the”wisdom of the audience” concept, the audience is far from infallible. Prediction markets have experienced some high-profile loopholes recently. A Bloomberg piece about the collapse of prediction markets to predict the 2016 election had the telling subheading”Individuals who will not speak to pollsters likely also do not bet on elections” It is a significant point. For the knowledge of this audience to operate, there needs to be a decent diversity of perspectives.
Augur is nowhere near the first forecast marketplace, but most niches now occupy a market: politics, pop culture, sports. The invention Augur is supplying is that anybody may produce a forecast marketplace about whatever . It remains to be seen if that is sufficient — if this invention may result in sufficient participation to really enhance the validity of forecasts.
However, when it does not pan out that Augur contributes to the development of a military of forecasters, permitting us to find the future more clearly and strategy for it rationally, we will still be able to set some cash on the Warriors.